According to reporting by the Cleveland County Herald, Cleveland County’s population has continued to decline despite projections made more than two decades ago that anticipated significant growth by 2025.
A 2003 study by the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas projected the county’s population would reach between 10,378 and 11,414 residents by 2025. At the time, Cleveland County’s estimated population was 8,541, meaning the study anticipated growth of roughly 21% under its lower estimate and 33% under its upper estimate.
Instead, census figures and more recent estimates have shown a different trend. The 2010 U.S. Census recorded the county’s population at 8,689 before it declined to 7,550 in 2020. Current estimates cited by the Herald from World Population Review place the population at approximately 7,073 residents, reflecting a loss of 151 people over the past year alone.
Historical census records illustrate how dramatically the county’s population has shifted over time. Cleveland County recorded 8,370 residents in 1880 before growing to 11,362 by 1890. The population remained at or above 11,000 for roughly the next 50 years, reaching a peak of 13,481 in the 1910 Census.
Following World War II, however, the county experienced a steep decline. The population fell from 12,570 in 1940 to 8,965 in 1950, a decrease of nearly 29% in just one decade. It continued to drop to 6,944 in 1960 and reached a low of 6,605 in 1970 before rebounding to 7,868 in 1980 and eventually climbing back to 8,689 in 2010.
The Herald noted that while the 2003 study overestimated growth in Cleveland County, it more accurately anticipated an overall decline across Southeast Arkansas, though the losses proved much greater than expected. The study projected the region’s population would fall from 336,961 in 2003 to 319,296 by 2025, a decrease of 17,665 residents, or 5.2%.
Current estimates tell a different story. The combined population of the 14-county region is now estimated at 255,946, representing a loss of approximately 81,015 residents—or about 24%—since 2003.
The broader trend extends beyond Cleveland County. According to the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture’s 2025 Rural Profile of Arkansas, 50 of the state’s 75 counties lost population between 2010 and 2022. During that period, rural counties experienced a 5.4% decline while urban counties grew by 11.6%. Among Arkansas regions, the Coastal Plains—which includes Cleveland County—recorded the largest population decrease at 12.1%, followed by the Delta at 11.4%.
The Arkansas Department of Workforce Services has attributed much of Southeast Arkansas’ long-term population loss to out-migration, particularly among adults ages 18 to 35 who leave rural communities for employment opportunities, higher education and additional amenities in places such as Little Rock, Conway and Northwest Arkansas.
Natural population change has also played a role. According to USAFacts, Cleveland County recorded 50 more deaths than births between 2023 and 2024.
Employment data reflects the county’s relatively small economic footprint as well. The latest U.S. Census Bureau figures show Cleveland County had 77 business establishments employing a total of 626 people in 2023.
